Next Rated Meeting - Sha Tin 18th December
2017 - Betting Update
We will be changing our staking approach in the second half of the season in order to best capitalise on the high strike rate of top 3 rated runners. KPI runners continue to perform well, but in order to bet more races each meeting we will broaden our scope.
I have been successfully betting a Dutch Book method based betting the top 3 rated runners to return a set profit on a race.
NEW in 2017 - Online Tool for Subscribers
Subscribers will have access to an online bet calculator that will help them make betting decisions. The tool will allow users to:
1. Enter the top 3 rated runners for the race.
2. Enter the odds available.
3. Determine whether the race should be bet or left alone.
Excellent win at Happy Valley 22nd December
A quiet night for KPI's at Happy Valley on December 22nd. One bet for one win with Excellence paying as much as $6 fixed for subscribers. The KPI's are going along consistently. There will be some changes to the sheet in the new year. We have been testing amethod that means we can exploit our class fiugres abit more and have more betting involvement on most racedays.
Sea Jade Bolts in for Sectional Subscribers
The money came late for Sea Jade in Race 4 at Happy Valley on Wednesday 30th November. Our only KPI bet for the night, Sea Jade blitzed the field to win by a widening 4.5 lengths. With $5.50 fixed available at advice time HKSpeedKing followers cleaned up on the race with Sea Jade starting at $2.70 in Hong Kong. One bet, one win 100% record on the night. It looked a rubbish card and being circumspect and backing the one good thing was a good strategy. Strangely most pundits looked everywhere but Sea Jade. First start at Happy Valley was probably the negative factor they focused on. To me he looked the perfect Happy Valley type with his front running style and compact action.
Win It a Big Collect for Sectional Profile Subscribers
There's often value to be had in a race where we have no prime (KPI) bets. Win It in Race 3 on the 16th November being a case in point. Ranked on top for sectional profile and rated around the $10 mark, Win It steamed down the outside to pay$34 in Hong Kong and up to $61 fixed at Sportsbet. Other finds for the profilers on Wednesday night were Wayfoong Vinnie ($5.50 fixed) and Molly's Jade Star.
Footnote: The profilers were at it again on Wednesday the 23rd November at Happy Valley. Kim Glory despised in the market and tipped by no one figured well in the sectional profiles. Rated $5 Kim Glory looked a threat at the 200m and just missed in third place. Kim Glory started at $47+ and paid $9.70 the place on the HK tote.
View Win It's victory here. Replay
UK race fans to bet into Hong Kong
As part of the agreement, the betting shops and online platforms of Betfred, Coral and Ladbrokes will accept bets on the HKJC's tote pools, although fixed-odds betting will not be available. SIS will distribute the live broadcasts.
The HKJC's executive director Richard Cheung said: "Given its tremendous legacy in the sport of horseracing, it is a great pleasure to welcome the UK to our expanding list of co-mingling jurisdictions.
"While we are certain that UK racing fans will be attracted to the world-class racing in Hong Kong, especially with our Longines Hong Kong International Races looming on Sunday, December 11, our midweek racing, often at Happy Valley, is a perfect midday option for customers." Racing Post 15th November 2016......read full story
Clock Busters - Don Kong's Top 10 Season 2016-17
Baba Mama On the Rise
Baba Mama got tongues wagging when he jumped out of the ground to win at Sha Tin on Sunday the 7th of November. Our main bet Beauty Kingdom looked home for all money with 100m to go. Baba Mama loomed large in Purton's rearview mirror and put the race away in a few strides. There's bigger things to come form this horse. A scintillating turn of foot and a zest for racing are the horse's greatest attributes. Injured rider Derek Leung is about to return to the saddle. It looks like Baba Mama will be aimed at the Class 2 mile race on International Day....7/11/2016
Of all the racecourses in all the world...
Pakistan Star's devastating finish was again on display at Sha Tin on October 16th. Unfortunately the equine rocket's jets could only get him into second place behind the promising Mr Bogart. Our figures suggested that Pakistan Star would most likely have too much to do in the last 200 metres of the race in order to catch Mr Bogart. Mr Bogart had two key race factors in his favour. The first being that he mapped perfectly to make his run when ever the pilot chose to do so. Secondly Pakistan Star would have to run an impossible last 400 metre split to catch Mr Bogart if all their maps went to script. In the end the 2.5 length margin was testimony to the talent of both horses. Pakistan Star got closer than most horses would under the circumstances and Mr Bogart stamped himself as a classy animal. Neither horse lost any admirers on the day.
Pakistan Star, another amazing win!
Pakistan Star does it again with another come from the clouds win. In his second race start. Pakistan Star again missed the kick and was a conspicuous three lengths last until he tacked on turning into the straight. Jockey Matthew Chadwick hit the go button at the 600m and Pakistan Star turned on the jets, reeling off his last 400m in a slick 21.44 seconds. Full Replay courtesy HKJC
As exciting as Pakistan Star is, he can ill afford to give better class horses a head start of the magnitude he has afforded recent rivals. Sooner or later a poor off will cost him a race. Jing Jing Win also coasted to an easy victory and looks a horse of great promise.
Ten rated races, 5 winners rated on top and yet I had an average day on the punt. Mighty Wongchoy in the first rated $3.50 and saluted with $10 fixed available.I made a decision to avoid the All Weather races and it cost me two wins.
On Saturday we said:
"There's a lot of hype surrounding Jing Jing Win and Pakistan Star at the Sha Tin meeting on Sunday. Both have undeniable chances, but their odds could be prohibitive. Pakistan Star exhibited astonishing late speed at his only run. That said, he beat nothing and his overall speed figure was nothing to write home about. Watch Pakistan Star's amazing first up win here." Video
The season is well under way with a few blowout results that have set tongues wagging. The one that hurt my hip pocket was the win of Twin Delight at 250-1 over the highly fancied Joyful Trinity. Joao Moreira left Joyful Trinity with too much to do from the 4oo metres. Joyful Trinity rocketed to the line running the best final section of the day. All to no avail. The other big blowout was Super Form at 99-1 at Happy Valley on Wednesday 7th of September. I gave neither horse any chance, that's the way it goes early in the year. The figures have been performing well and we will kick into gear when we have some 30 and 60 day form to add to our key performance indicators. Four winners rated on top on Wednesday Sept 7th at Happy Valley and we have a few good results all ready. Twin Delight's win - http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video/play.asp?type=replay-full&date=20160911&no=09&lang=eng Super Form's win: http://racing.hkjc.com/racing/video/play.asp?type=replay-full&date=20160907&no=04&lang=eng Videos courtesy HKJC.