Talking Points Hong Kong Racing
Talking points is a regular series of articles on different aspects of Hong kong racing.
Like all punters I am always looking for an edge. A way of dissecting the form that can be leveraged into winners and improving the bottom line. It's a slog. A marathon, not a sprint. I chat regularly with other professional and informed punters and work constantly at improving my database. There's no magic formula. The class system in Hong Kong makes the racing all that more intriguing. Who's trying and who isn't? Who are the up and comers that can rise through the grades? When is Moreira over bet and is there an opportunity for a big overlay? Where's the hype and where's the figures?
A twitter friend asked recently why did I rate Monsieur Mogok (November 11th at Happy Valley over 1800m) at $3.30 when most 'experts' had the horse around $10+? It is a good case in point. First of all I don't look at the market until I have framed my own. I will sometimes examine my figures more closely if I totally oppose the market with 3 or 4 favoured horses. I am always happy to take on the $2 favourites I have rated at $4.
Back to Monsieur Mogok.........
Sometimes the winner of a race just seems obvious. A quick check of the market and you think what the...? How is this horse NOT favourite? Am I missing something? It's nice when the stars align. The figures make sense, the market doesn't see it and you cash in. It works the other way too, of course. We just have to be right more than we are wrong. Southchina Command's recent duck breaking win was another example of a horse that just figured to win. Another $3 rater that saluted at $10+
- Monsieur Mogok was coming off some moderate speed figures over a 1650 at the Valley and 1600m at Sha Tin, but my speed profile said his figures spike first and second runs at 1800m. That's it, simple. This is a horse that has a well defined climb, level and taper form pattern. He runs his best speed figure at runs three and four, holds his form for a few runs then tapers off. Much more predictable than horses with ill defined or bounce patterns.
- I'm not going to give away trade secrets, but suffice to say my race profile tool said the $1.85 favourite Smart Union was a $6 chance at best. Monsieur Mogok was the horse most likely to return a 100 plus speed figure in this race at this time.
- The next thing I did was examine videos of lead up runs to see if Monsieur was running through the line. 8, 8 and 6 were Monsieur's last three finishes but he ran through the line nicely in the final lead in run. #readytopeak
- Finally the relative class figure for the field was significantly lower than most of the fields Monsieur had met in his previous prep. #Icanbeatthislot
History tells us that Smart Union missed a place at odds on and we got a triple overlay at $11+ with Monsieur Mogok. The key figures speedwise were back in March and April, the corresponding part of his form cycle to the current prep. Sometimes you have to go back a ways! How is any of this of use to you? Join us at www.rickwilliamsracing .com and find out!